In 2024, Armenia’s foreign policy underwent a significant transformation. What was once a cautious balancing act between Russia and the West is now evolving into a decisive shift towards European integration. This change is driven by a combination of internal aspirations and external pressures, marking a new chapter in Armenia’s geopolitical journey.
By Shushanik Avagyan, political scientist affiliated with the Institute of Liberal Politics and Transparency International Armenia
In 2024, Armenia’s foreign policy underwent a significant transformation. What was once a cautious balancing act between Russia and the West is now evolving into a decisive shift towards European integration. This change is driven by a combination of internal aspirations and external pressures, marking a new chapter in Armenia’s geopolitical journey.
But the question on everyone’s mind remains: Is this a lasting strategic realignment—or just a bold detour while Moscow looks the other way?
The fraught path out of Moscow’s orbit
Armenia’s initial steps towards European integration date back to the early 2010s. In 2013, after years of negotiations, Armenia was poised to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the EU, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). However, under pressure from Russia, Armenia reversed course and joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) instead.
In 2017, Armenia signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU, a lighter alternative to the AA, focusing on political and economic cooperation without the deep trade integration of the DCFTA. While CEPA has facilitated reforms in governance and human rights, its implementation has been limited. The geopolitical landscape began to shift dramatically after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These events exposed the limitations of Armenia’s reliance on Russian security guarantees and highlighted the need for a diversified foreign policy. As a result, public trust in Russia plummeted, while support for the EU grew significantly. A March 2024 poll indicated that over 80% of Armenians were satisfied with EU-Armenia relations, and by October 2024, 58% expressed support for joining the EU.
Renewed European momentum
In recent years, the Armenian government has made increasingly pro-European statements, welcomed EU monitoring missions along the border, and expanded cooperation under the CEPA framework. These institutional moves reflect a clear top-down commitment to reorient Armenia’s foreign policy. In May 2024, the United Platform of Democratic Forces initiated a campaign for a referendum on EU accession, gathering over 60,000 signatures. While this number represents a small fraction of the population, it signalled a growing public interest in European integration. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan acknowledged the political significance of the movement but refrained from committing to a referendum, likely to avoid escalating tensions with Russia and other regional players.
On 26 March 2025, Armenia’s parliament adopted a law initiating the country’s EU accession process, which was signed into law by President Vahagn Khachaturyan on 4 April 2025. This move formalised Armenia’s European integration ambitions, although full membership remains a long-term goal requiring extensive reforms and likely a public referendum.
Trapped by trade, haunted by geography
Nevertheless, Armenia’s economic ties with Russia remain substantial. In 2024, bilateral trade reached a record $12 billion, with Armenia heavily reliant on Russian imports, including energy resources and grain. This dependency poses a significant challenge to Armenia’s EU aspirations, as deeper integration with the EU could provoke economic retaliation from Moscow. Moreover, Armenia’s landlocked geography and closed borders with Türkiye and Azerbaijan limit its access to EU markets, complicating efforts to diversify its economy. While Georgia’s potential accession to the EU could eventually bring Armenia physically closer to the Union’s external borders, Armenia’s own domestic and regional constraints continue to hinder this pathway.
In addition to economic vulnerabilities, Armenia’s shifting foreign policy is deeply shaped by its evolving security landscape. In response to renewed border tensions with Azerbaijan, the EU launched the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA) in February 2023, deploying around 100 unarmed civilian observers along Armenia’s eastern border. While the mission aims to enhance stability and confidence-building, its presence has been met with mixed reactions. Some in Armenia have perceived it as a peacekeeping force, leading to unrealistic expectations about the EU’s role in ensuring security. This misperception, if unaddressed, could lead to public disillusionment, especially if border escalations persist without direct EU intervention.
A critical moment for Armenia’s European future
While Armenian officials emphasise EU integration as a national priority, they have stopped short of taking the most direct steps forward, leaving the process in a controlled, politically manageable space. This tactic helps the government navigate external pressures, but it also risks creating false expectations.
By giving the impression that Armenia is rapidly moving toward EU accession without taking clear, institutional changes, there is a danger that public enthusiasm could eventually turn into frustration. If citizens begin to feel that EU integration is more rhetoric than reality, trust in both the idea and the political leadership promoting it could weaken over time.
Armenia’s pursuit of EU integration is not just a foreign policy decision—it is a defining moment for the country’s long-term trajectory. The stakes are high: successful integration could provide economic stability, democratic consolidation, and a more secure future within the European framework. However, the path forward is fraught with geopolitical risks, from Russian pushback to shifting Western commitments.
For Yerevan, the challenge is clear: how to deepen European ties without triggering destabilising retaliation. This requires a careful sequencing of reforms, economic diversification to reduce dependence on Russian markets, and strategic communication to manage public expectations and regional sensitivities. The coming months will determine whether Armenia’s strategic pivot is a historic breakthrough or a high-stakes gamble with uncertain consequences.