The Unintended Impact of Trump’s Tariffs

On so-called ‘Liberation Day’, US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs of 20% on goods made in the EU, with similar measures for the US’s other trade partners. This policy paper asks if the new US economic policy will push Europe closer to China economically and promote a pivot towards Asia more broadly. This paper considers the contextual factors affecting the relationship between the EU and China and concludes that while the tariffs will inevitably bring them closer in terms of trade, such rapprochement is unlikely to materialise at the political level. Instead, the EU should expand its focus towards the Indo-Pacific and become a reliable partner in economic security. This would raise the EU’s profile as a geoeconomic power while minimising the costs of the US tariffs and protecting the liberal trade regime, its values, principles, and rules.