From Tbilisi Street Clashes to Continental War Plans: Countering Illiberal Populism

By Marie Inasaridze , Policy Research Intern

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a series of regional geopolitical realignments, particularly testing the democratic resilience of the Eastern Partnership countries. As Armenia and Moldova deepen ties with the EU, a noticeable shadow looms over the South Caucasus.

Georgia, once a regional beacon, has taken a drastic detour from its Euro-Atlantic path. In October, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party again secured a contested local majority, followed by the Parliamentary Speaker, Shalva Papuashvili accusing the EU of financing anti-governmental protests, or “street wars”. This claim reflects the party’s broader illiberal populist rhetoric, which portrays Western liberal institutions as threats to Georgian sovereignty and national identity.

Framing the EU and NATO as sources of insecurity has become a dominant strategy for illiberal populists, with stagnating accession talks fuelling populist narratives in EU candidate countries. If the Union seeks to remain credible, it must mobilise appropriate tools to combat Eurosceptic populist narratives. By turning enlargement into a predictable process, the Staged Integration Model offers an effective framework for curbing illiberal populism.

Populist Network as an Illiberal Tool

The rise of populism challenges the EU’s and NATO’s posturing as guarantors of stability and security. This thin-cantered ideology is a powerful political tool for illiberal actors, who exploit social cleavages and collective fears to manufacture new sources of insecurity that serve narrow political agendas.

Though populism’s ideological ambiguity allows it to adapt to local contexts, its actors operate within a wider network. Illiberal populists disseminate near-identical Eurosceptic narratives and through mutual referencing, legitimise the reframing of Western institutions as threats to national sovereignty. It is therefore unsurprising that Papuashvili’s remarks echoed Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán’s claims that Brussels was imposing a “war plan” on the Member States. This habitual cross-referencing mirrors Kremlin’s propaganda and aims to normalise Eurosceptic narratives that portray the EU, rather than Russia, as sources of regional insecurity. As Eurosceptic far-right candidates gain more traction, the network of illiberal populists is only bound to expand.

Meanwhile, the West’s fragmented response to the Russian aggression, along with stagnating accession talks, struggle to provide a credible sense of security. Illiberal populists capitalise on these frustrations to portray Georgia as a lone soldier, abandoned by unreliable allies that not only fail to protect it, but also actively try to drag it into war. Liberal actors can no longer afford a posture of passive engagement toward accession countries, especially as the cross-continental populist network continues to grow. They must act upon early indicators of societal drift and provide security guarantees that extend beyond military assistance to include political, economic, and informational resilience.

Learning from Accession Countries

The rise of such alarmist narratives and actors, even in small countries like Georgia, cannot be dismissed as a distant concern. What happens at the footsteps of the EU, is often indicative of greater geopolitical shifts. Yet, rather than adopting a proactive, strategic approach to early warning signs, the Union has too often fallen into a pattern of delayed reaction – be it during Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 or the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Such delays, coupled with stalled accession processes, fuel public frustration and empower malign actors.

European liberals must recognize and respond to early indicators decisively. They need to build stronger networks, craft unified narratives against populist alarmism, and match messaging with actionable measures.

Revising the Accession Framework

Europe must not treat Georgia as a lost cause, as the ongoing resistance to GD’s repression attests to Georgian resilience and dedication to a democratic future. The EU must avoid punishing a resilient populace for the actions of its government and instead target the regime and its enablers. Sanctions and travel bans on party affiliates are long overdue, while little has been done to counter the polarising populist narratives that legitimise repression. The time for cautious observation has passed — Europe must act in defence of its values, and of those who still fight for them in Tbilisi.

Introducing the Staged Integration Model directly counters illiberal populism by addressing the uncertainty and disenchantment that fuel it. The proposed framework rewards tangible progress via clear, staged benchmarks, thus reducing the risk of an accession stalemate. Consequently, turning accession into a predictable process denies populist ambiguity, blocking attempts to weaponise stalled talks for Eurosceptic fearmongering. By streamlining the process and fostering unity, this model strengthens EU credibility and rebuilds public trust, which is crucial for countering populist manipulation. Ultimately, the model advances the Union’s regional security objectives and prevents candidate countries from drifting toward strategic rivals.