Western Balkans as a Key Strategic Partner in Shaping European Security 

By Jasmina Ibrahimpašić and Ilma Ida Garankić 

Policy and Research department of Boris Divkovic Foundation 

With the war in Ukraine, drones flying into NATO territory and ongoing protests in Serbia – just to mention a few relevant examples – we can say that Europe’s security, democracy, and stability are at stake. One of the key panels at the “Rethinking Security on Europe’s Eastern Frontier” conference this year addressed Europe’s security and stability and explored the role that the Western Balkans could play in strengthening the European security architecture.   

This ELF event, organised in cooperation with the Boris Divković Foundation brought together experts, policymakers, and civil society actors in Sarajevo. Moderated by journalist and analyst Haris Bilalović, the panel featured esteemed speakers: Aurélie Valtat (European Union Delegation to Bosnia and Herzegovina), Harun Karčić (political analyst, journalist, and producer), and Professor Edina Bećirević (Faculty of Criminal Justice, Criminology, and Security Studies). 

From ‘Time Bomb’ to Strategic Bridge? 

The discussion opened with a central question: Are the Western Balkans still viewed through the outdated lens of volatility and crisis, or is the region poised to become a strategic partner in fostering European resilience and autonomy? Aurélie Valtat offered historical context, reflecting on EU security initiatives in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1990s. She emphasized that the Western Balkans’ experience is deeply embedded in the EU’s collective security narrative.  

With the resurgence of threats such as Russian aggression, Valtat highlighted a renewed urgency to re-engage with the region. She underscored the potential for Western Balkan countries to contribute to peacekeeping missions and EU defence initiatives, opportunities that, she argued, remain underexplored. 

Stabilitocracy and Democratic Backsliding 

Professor Edina Bećirević presented a critical perspective on the region’s internal political dynamics, warning of a growing trend toward “stabilitocracy” where superficial stability is prioritized over democratic values. She argued that this has enabled persistent historical revisionism in Serbia and Croatia and the normalization of far-right ideologies, particularly in Croatia. This is particularly disturbing given that Croatia is both a NATO and EU member state, which, instead of amplifying such tendencies, should be expected to exert a stabilizing influence on the wider region. Professor Bećirević focused on the Balkans, similar concerns are reflected in broader European discussions about the erosion of democratic values under the pressure of geopolitical and security challenges, as outlined in Geopolitics of Resources – Securing the Essentials in a Turbulent World (European Liberal Forum, 2021).

“This is not a cultural or religious issue,” Bećirević stated, “but a political one that directly contributes to the region’s ongoing instability.”

Global Influences and Diminishing Western Presence 

Harun Karčić addressed recent shifts in global engagement, pointing to the diminished presence of U.S.-based institutions such as USAID following administrative changes in Washington. Similar concerns have been raised in European policy circles, with calls for the EU to take a more proactive role in filling the geopolitical vacuum, as emphasized in a previous blog post:“Europe, fill the vacuum and occupy your place in the world right now!”. 

While Western attention was focused on counterterrorism efforts, particularly against ISIS, China and Russia were steadily expanding their influence through infrastructure and media investments across the Balkans. 

Karčić also highlighted the limited yet notable contributions of Bosnia and Herzegovina to international peacekeeping efforts including missions in Sudan, Cyprus, and Somalia as examples of the region’s underappreciated role in global security. He noted that, despite many challenges, Bosnia and Herzegovina has made substantial progress since the end of the war three decades ago, with legacy institutions like healthcare and education systems still functioning today. 

The EU’s Credibility and the Youth Disillusionment 

A key topic was the EU’s current standing and its ability to compete with strategic rivals like Russia and China in the region. Valtat asserted that momentum for EU enlargement is now stronger than ever, but also stressed the need for institutional reform and fresh perspectives within the Western Balkans. 

Additionally, Bećirević raised concerns about youth disengagement from the European  integration process. “Many young people feel that core EU values have been compromised,” she noted, citing perceived double standards in EU foreign policy, especially in relation to Africa and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as a major factor undermining trust in Brussels. 

Karčić added that the public in Bosnia and Herzegovina often perceives EU accession as a panacea for all national issues, a belief that could lead to disillusionment if expectations are not managed appropriately. 

A Call for Proactive Engagement and Institutional Commitment 

Valtat emphasized that maintaining the EU’s credibility in the Western Balkans requires more than rhetorical commitment, it demands action. She advocated for bringing Western Balkan ministers to Brussels and integrating them into decision-making processes as a means of fostering ownership and accountability. 

“Without institutional support,” she stressed, “there can be no meaningful progress.” 

Bećirević concluded by reflecting on NATO’s military intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the 1990s, which she described as pivotal in reinforcing the alliance’s credibility. She called on both NATO and the EU to draw lessons from the resilience of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens and to take bolder steps in countering the rise of far-right ideologies across the continent. 

The panel offered a rich and nuanced discussion, emphasizing that the Western Balkans must be seen not just as a region of concern but as a strategic partner in shaping Europe’s future. As global power dynamics shift, the region stands at a crossroads with the potential to either be sidelined by competing influences or integrated into a more autonomous, resilient, and values-based European security framework. 

As emphasized in the ELF blog post “Bridging the Gap: The Case for Political Engagement in Complex Environments and the Merits of Staged Integration”, the Western Balkans’ potential can only be fully realized through a careful, step-by-step integration process that strengthens both regional autonomy and European values. By adopting flexible, transparent, and phased frameworks, the EU can reinforce trust, support long-term stability, and turn geopolitical uncertainty into an opportunity for deeper and more effective integration.