On the 28th of September 2025, Moldovans went to the polls in what many regarded as one of the most consequential parliamentary elections in the country’s young democracy. Against a backdrop of regional uncertainty, foreign interference, and mounting socio-economic pressures, this election was about where Moldova belongs: in the EU, or stuck in Russia’s shadow.
By Sofia Mørch, Research Fellow at ELF
On the 28th of September 2025, Moldovans went to the polls in what many regarded as one of the most consequential parliamentary elections in the country’s young democracy. Against a backdrop of regional uncertainty, foreign interference, and mounting socio-economic pressures, this election was about where Moldova belongs: in the EU, or stuck in Russia’s shadow.
The outcome delivered a decisive victory for the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu. With just over half of the vote and 55 of 101 parliamentary seats, PAS secured an outright majority and a strong mandate to advance its reformist, pro-European agenda. By contrast, the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc won roughly a quarter of the vote, positioning itself as the main opposition but lacking the capacity to obstruct legislation. Turnout exceeded 52 percent, with the diaspora playing a pivotal role in consolidating the pro-European result. For Brussels, the message is straightforward: Moldovans want to be part of the European Union building on their 2022 EU membership application and the 2024 constitutional referendum that anchored its European course.
Russian interference
While civil society and state institutions acted decisively to preserve transparency and voter trust, giving a window to advance its European path, this might not be the case indefinitely. Russian disinformation, cyberattacks on institutions, and bomb threats at polling stations abroad highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities, while the frozen conflict in Transnistria remains a constant security concern.
Domestic priorities are equally pressing. Citizens worry about sluggish economic growth, rising inflation, limited opportunities, and the continued exodus of young professionals. PAS’s mandate now depends on delivering tangible improvements in governance, public services, and infrastructure, alongside judicial reform and anti-corruption measures to rebuild trust.
This mix of external pressures and domestic concerns creates both urgency and opportunity and exposes a structural tension that Moldova might face in the long term. Currently, its progress is closely tied to Ukraine’s trajectory through procedural ‘coupling’ in EU accession, whereby candidate countries are grouped together and treated as a single unit during key milestones of the accession process. When citizens see domestic reforms stalled for procedural reasons, frustration could grow, undermining public trust, weakening reform incentives, and increasing vulnerability to Russian influence—threatening both European security and Ukraine’s stability.
To couple or to decouple
This debate on ‘coupling’ is intrinsically linked to the broader EU Enlargement agenda and its objectives. Decoupling could restore merit-based progress to address Moldova’s domestic priorities, but separating Moldova from Ukraine risks rewarding veto players, weakening strategic unity, and undermining EU credibility. The EU therefore faces a difficult dilemma: stay coupled and risk frustrating Moldova, or decouple and risk leaving Ukraine behind, with no clear alternatives to balance merit-based advancement with the security and solidarity benefits of coordinated support. A merit-based system adheres to liberal values of equal opportunities and can communicate to the public that progress down the path leads to reward.
Moldova’s recent elections reveal a strong appetite for Europe, but one that cannot be taken for granted. The government now faces the dual challenge of delivering tangible improvements in daily life while strengthening institutions and civic trust. For the EU, the task is equally delicate: balancing the security imperative of solidarity with Ukraine with the need to support Moldova’s integration – ensuring that procedural ties to Ukraine do not block progress on the issues that matter most to citizens. Developing strategies and instruments that advance both domestic reform and long-term European security will be crucial, and the role of coupling in this context requires careful examination.
Getting this balance right is vital not only for Moldova’s future, but also for the credibility of the EU’s enlargement process as a whole. In the past, the EU has stuck far too rigidly to inefficient processes. We can no longer afford to be so inflexible and slow in today’s multipolar world. The next election is always around the corner and hopeful EU citizens around Europe will be judging the EU, and what it can truly offer.