Will Robots Crush Generative AI?

By Eloi Borgne, Junior Policy and Research Officer at ELF

While Silicon Valley captivated the world with generative AI that can create art and have a conversation, Chinese factories were quietly installing  industrial robots on a scale never seen before.

This divergence is more than a difference in taste; it demonstrates a fundamental split in technological philosophy. The United States and China, which together account for nearly 50% of global research and development spending, are building the future on two very different blueprints. The US champions a market-driven system of frontier software models, while China focuses on a coordinated “engine of scale” to dominate physical automation such as robotics and embodied AI.

China’s intense focus on physical automation is not an arbitrary choice; it is a direct response to a deep demographic dilemma. The country is experiencing a multi-year decline in its population, with its working-age population projected to shrink dramatically. Facing a future labour shortage, over 90% of Chinese organisations identify AI as a key technology for transformation, with robotics being a central pillar. This is a game of survival. The government’s strategic plans explicitly aim for “global leadership” in robotics while developing a workforce with the technical skills to thrive alongside machines.

Consequently, the global AI landscape is becoming a tale of two markets. The US currently commands an overwhelming 93% share of global large language model (LLM) usage, a dominance reflected in its frontier software companies. However, China is closing the gap rapidly, with its models gaining significant ground, particularly in developing nations. In funding, US venture capital dominates, while China has led in major AI model public listings. Importantly, the US holds an edge in advanced AI chips and model capability, but China maintains advantages in the electricity generation needed to power massive data centres.

The ultimate question is not which nation is “winning,” but what kind of future each is building. The US path is already redefining knowledge work and creativity through digital agents. China’s path seeks economic resilience with automated physical labour. The true measure of success may be which country can best harness its chosen technological strength to solve its own societal challenges, from workforce transitions in the US to demographic pressures in China. The race is not for a single finish line, but to prove whose version of an AI-powered future is most sustainable and transformative.

What about Europe?

This global divide forces a pivotal debate in Europe: Will it trail behind the US agenda, or will remain dependant on Chinese industrial chains? The EU’s path to positronic power on the world stage will not be in choosing a side, but in choosing itself: through a unified and sovereign strategy. 

I will conclude by paraphrasing Charles Mok, in the ELF publication: “Designing Europe’s Future: AI as a Force of Good”. Europe remains a significant force in AI and robotics, not only because of its scientific strengths and innovative companies, but also thanks to the continued market appeal that underpins the Brussels Effect. Its market remains comparatively open, rules‑based, and attractive to global developers.

These are qualities that increasingly differentiate it from both the US and China. Yet as AI governance becomes more important than regulation alone, Europe must adapt: the world is no longer defaulting to the European model, and governments and startups alike are now searching for frameworks that combine innovation with strong commitments to human rights and safety. In this shifting landscape, Europe has an opportunity to step into the leadership void and shape the global standards of the AI era.

In robotics, Europe, while still important, is losing ground due to slower investment, market fragmentation, and weaker integration of AI into robotics. Europe will need approximately 2.6 million additional retirement‑home places by 2030, representing a massive expansion of infrastructure to keep pace with demographic ageing. Who will take care of this ageing population? Who will fill in the jobs left behind by a population which is diminishing with each generation? This field should not be forgotten, as we have seen from the Chinese case, robotics could solve a major issue both Europe and China will face in the future.