When regimes abandon rule of law, they become security liabilities overnight. Imagine: A NATO army where promotions depend on loyalty tests, not competence, migration deals signed with leaders who tear up constitutions before breakfast and a Middle East mediator whose courts can declare any opponent a “terrorist” on demand.
By İsrafil Özkan, Director of Freedom Research Association
Istanbul woke up to a gut-punch on March 19th: Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—the man who defeated Erdoğan’s party three times against all odds odds —was arrested in a dawn raid. The charges (“corruption,” “terror links”) are so transparently political that even normally cautious legal experts are calling this what it is: the silencing of Erdoğan’s most formidable rival just as he was gaining unstoppable momentum.
What’s happening on the ground?
Turkey’s opposition-run cities, led by Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, constitute the nation’s economic engine – producing 70% of tax income and 60% of exports despite political marginalization at the national level. This economic reality makes Erdoğan’s recent crackdowns more sinister: having lost control of these vital hubs in two consecutive local elections, his regime now seeks to reclaim their resources through judicial warfare and illegal trustee appointments.
This isn’t just another arrest. İmamoğlu represented the last credible electoral threat to Erdoğan—a leader who could actually win. By jailing him, the government isn’t just rigging the game; they’re burning the rulebook. After years of closing newspapers and replacing elected mayors with puppets, they’ve now crossed the line even cautious observers feared: making elections meaningless while systematically looting the economic strongholds they couldn’t win democratically.
The Stakes for Europe – And Why Autocracy Makes Turkey Unfit for Purpose
Turkey isn’t just another country sliding toward dictatorship: It’s NATO’s second-largest army, the gatekeeper of migration flows and the fragile barrier between Europe and the fires of the Middle East.
Yet Erdoğan’s authoritarian turn is systematically destroying what makes these assets reliable. The pattern is clear: when regimes abandon rule of law, they become security liabilities overnight. Imagine: A NATO army where promotions depend on loyalty tests, not competence, migration deals signed with leaders who tear up constitutions before breakfast and a Middle East mediator whose courts can declare any opponent a “terrorist” on demand.
This is the paradox Europe faces: Turkey’s geography and military remain vital, but its value collapses when institutions become extensions of one man’s whims. The 2016 migration agreement worked because Brussels could negotiate with something resembling a government. What happens when even that facade vanishes, when the Foreign Minister’s promises are overruled by midnight presidential decrees and when critical infrastructure projects depend on which oligarchs are in favor this month?
The lesson from Hungary should chill Brussels: illiberalism is contagious. But Turkey isn’t just another backsliding democracy—it’s the keystone holding up three existential European security architectures: NATO’s southern flank, energy transit routes, and the containment arc from Syria to the Caucasus. Lose Turkey to full-blown authoritarianism, and the bill comes due in:
Supporting Turkey’s democrats isn’t charity—it’s damage control. Because the alternative isn’t just losing Turkey as an ally. It’s waking up to find a hostile, unpredictable power where Europe’s southeastern bulwark used to be.