2 July 2025
The 21st century will be the century of space. This grand claim, recently echoed by Commissioner Kubilius in remarks on the European Space Act (ESA) and the EU’s new Vision for the Space Economy, is not mere rhetoric. The global space sector is projected to grow exponentially, with the Draghi report suggesting it could surpass €1.5 trillion by 2035 (from €500 billion in 2023), reshaping not just defence and telecommunications, but climate monitoring, precision agriculture, finance, and mobility. Accordingly, space is no longer just a frontier of exploration, but an economic engine and critical infrastructure layer central to modern civilisation.
By Benjamin Robitaille, Research Fellow at the European Liberal Forum
The 21st century will be the century of space. This grand claim, recently echoed by Commissioner Kubilius in remarks on the European Space Act (ESA) and the EU’s new Vision for the Space Economy, is not mere rhetoric. The global space sector is projected to grow exponentially, with the Draghi report suggesting it could surpass €1.5 trillion by 2035 (from €500 billion in 2023), reshaping not just defence and telecommunications, but climate monitoring, precision agriculture, finance, and mobility. Accordingly, space is no longer just a frontier of exploration, but an economic engine and critical infrastructure layer central to modern civilisation.
Brussels, we have a problem
But with that growth comes risk. Europe’s satellites face increasing threats ranging from collision with debris to cyberattacks. For instance, earth’s orbit is becoming a traffic jungle littered with debris from defunct satellites and rockets. These fragments travel at hypersonic speeds and threaten to cause chain-reaction collisions (the Kessler syndrome) which could render orbits unusable. These aren’t merely theoretical concerns: debris-related damage already accounts for up to 10% of mission costs.
European liberals see the proposed ESA as a necessary wake-up call. If space is a shared commons which houses a range of critical infrastructure, then the EU has a duty of care to ensure these risks are minimised, and that space is governed responsibly, sustainably, and collectively. Yet until now, Europe’s approach has fallen short of that ambition, and the continent is structurally unprepared. Rather than acting as a true space power, the EU has mostly played the role of funder, financing flagship programmes like Galileo and Copernicus, but leaving oversight and enforcement to national authorities.
The result is a fragmented and uneven legal landscape. To date, only 13 of the 27 EU member states have adopted dedicated national space laws governing satellite launches and operation. This patchwork approach creates serious problems. Disparities in national rules for safety, cybersecurity, and sustainability actively weaken collective resilience in orbit and undermine cross-border cooperation. For European space operators, this means unnecessary delays, compliance costs, and a lack of predictability in scaling across borders. For the EU, it means a weakened industrial base. Inconsistent standards and bureaucratic redundancies cripple innovation and raise costs, while global competitors like the U.S. and China race ahead. Without common rules, Europe cannot credibly claim to be a competitive power in this new geo-political frontier.
A Highway Code for Orbit
Unveiled in June 2025, the ESA is the EU’s first substantive legislative answer to these issues: a comprehensive regulation built on three pillars of space safety, resilience, and sustainability. As Renew MEP Christophe Grudler put it, this is a “real highway code” for orbit. It replaces national discrepancies with a single market for space operations. The outcome should be improved clarity, openness, and cross-border innovation in space activities ecosystem.
Key provisions include:
These rules are scaled to company size and risk profile, ensuring SMEs aren’t buried under red tape.
A Space Vision Beyond Regulation
The Space Act is paired with the EU’s “Vision for the European Space Economy,” setting out how Europe can compete in the booming space sector. The strategy focuses on boosting innovation through increased investment in R&I for technologies like reusable launchers and debris removal; expanding funding instruments to support startups via seed capital and space bonds; fostering talent by developing fellowships and improving cross-border skills mobility; and strengthening industrial autonomy by bolstering European launch capacity, securing critical components, and advancing dual-use technologies for both civilian and defence applications. This vision reflects a holistic liberal approach that sets rules to safeguard the space as a public good, while creating the conditions for single market dynamism, private innovation and strategic autonomy to thrive.
Critiques and Costs
However, like any ambitious regulation, the final ESA must avoid trading regulation and compliance for competitiveness. A key concern is whether its rules could slow Europe down just as it tries to ramp up competitiveness. Compliance could significantly raise costs for operators, with satellite expenses increasing by up to 10%, launch upgrades costing up to €1.5 million, and cybersecurity consuming 10% of IT budgets. Yet the draft does include exemptions and scaled requirements for SMEs to reduce compliance pressure. And the costs must be weighed against potential savings: streamlined licensing, improved traffic coordination, and stronger cyber resilience are likely to outweigh the costs of compliance.
Furthermore, while the Act is robust on safety and resilience, its environmental sustainability pillar feels comparatively underdeveloped. Proposals for full-lifecycle environmental footprint declarations, emissions reporting, and voluntary sustainability labelling may impose significant compliance costs, particularly for SMEs, without a clear incentive framework. Unless this pillar evolves beyond just ticking boxes, it risks becoming a placeholder to satisfy political expectations rather than a real lever for sustainable space transformation.
Looking Ahead
Consolidating the narrative of the 2023 Space Strategy for Security and Defence, the European Space Act is a bold step toward a coherent liberal vision for space: safe, open, competitive, and sustainable. It shifts the EU from a passive actor to a rulemaker, paving the way for innovation while preserving orbital commons. But rules alone won’t be enough.
In a next blog, we’ll explore how Europe can build the strategic muscle to match its regulatory ambition and become a credible hard power in an increasingly contested geopolitical environment.